The Kwara North 2027 Catch-22, by Ahmed Mohammed

The Kwara North 2027 Catch-22, by Ahmed Mohammed 

The formula for selecting a winning gubernatorial ticket in Kwara’s 2027 election is proving more complex than in previous cycles. This complexity has forced political actors to weigh tickets that promise the highest electoral payoff. Yet, several strategies designed to appeal to Kwarans are being undermined by the ambition of powerful political heavyweights from Kwara Central who appear ready to defy the popular agitation for fairness, equity, and justice; a principle that has often shaped zoning arrangements in other states. The two major parties are now at the mercy of each other’s moves, with neither sure of what the other will do next.

As 2027 approaches, the signs of this catch-22 situation are unmistakable. Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq is rumored to be favoring a successor from Kwara North, in keeping with an informal pact to rotate power. The presumed choice is meant to reward thirty years of unwavering loyalty. On paper, the equation looks simple. The APC has a deep bench of credible Northern politicians. Speaker Salihu Yakubu Danladi and Senator Sadiq Umar, who represents Kwara North, both cut the profile. In any serious political analysis, one of them should emerge especially with the APC Stakeholders Forum, a key influence in picking the party’s candidate.

But APC’s road to 2027 is riddled with obstacles, largely because of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s interest. Before becoming president, Tinubu operated as the ultimate kingmaker and remains the principal benefactor to many aspirants from Kwara central, including the incumbent Governor who feels believes he never won the party primaries in 2019. The weight of his influence means the APC would accept whoever he anoints, regardless of the regional sentiment currently shaping Kwara’s transition politics. The PDP is unlikely to play by the same zoning rules. Knowing it can field a strong Central candidate and harvest the bulk of votes there, PDP’s move may force Tinubu to “sacrifice” the North again just as he did when AbdulRazaq first ran in 2019.

Tinubu’s investment in the APC is profound, and the loyalty of his political protégés is unwavering. As party leader and architect of the coalition that unseated Goodluck Jonathan in 2015, the possibility of his preferred candidate cannot be dismissed. Kwarans must prepare for that reality and for the backlash it could trigger within the party and the North.

Roughly a year ago, as the “Kwara North Agenda” gained traction, a whisper circulated in Ilorin political circles: “Ilorin can never be number two.” Perhaps it was fear of a PDP Ilorin candidate running against a Northern APC ticket that cooled the idea. The fact that Kwara Central boasts an electoral hub, has produced governors three times since 1999 and this feeds perceptions of a “domination experiment”, the anchor that drives the Kwara North’s advocacy. Kwara North undeniably has aspirants with experience, competence, and compelling leadership credentials. But if the state ends up with a Tinubu-anointed ticket, we may see a repeat of past political exclusions, an alliance between Central and South that sidelines the North.

PDP’s unpredictability is exactly why APC remains hesitant. Desperate to reclaim power, PDP has signaled it won’t be bound by any APC-style rotational arrangement. If it settles on a Central candidate with names like former Speakers Prof. Ali Ahmad and Rt. Hon. Rasaq Atunwa, or Engr. Kale Kawu is already being floated, the election could take a volatile turn.

The most dangerous outcome would be an APC Northern ticket versus a PDP Central ticket. That scenario would turn 2027 into a regional referendum and revive the narrative that “the North cannot defeat the Central.” For PDP, picking Central may be ruthless political math, but it overrides any moral argument for equity. For APC, the risk of that matchup explains its reluctance to fully embrace the North advocacy.

Either way, both parties are trapped between the ethical pull of zoning and the cold demands of real politics. Their goal is not to be Kwara’s moral compass, but to occupy the Ahmadu Bello House in Ilorin by any means necessary.

As for the much-discussed ADC as “Third Force,” it remains largely theoretical and utopian. Politics is not a debate club or a morality contest, and boardroom approaches to power rarely translate to votes. The Third Force will only become a real threat if disgruntled APC or PDP factions break away after the primaries, pool their structures and resources, and challenge the system that created them. Until then, the picture of 2027 remains unclear.