OPINION: AbdulRazaq vs Saraki: The ‘Otoge’ Rematch By Simon Kolawole

AbdulRazaq vs Saraki: The ‘Otoge’ Rematch 

By Simon Kolawole

Have you been following recent events in Kwara State? You don’t know what you are missing. As the 2027 elections draw near, the north-central state is shaping up for another round of the unfinished heavyweight bout between Mr. AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq and Dr. Bukola Saraki. I can bet my laptop that both men will throw everything, including the kitchen sink, into the ring. Jabs are already being thrown here and there, and I think we will see uppercuts in the months ahead. I am not ruling out a few blows below the belt. Already, the state government has exhumed the Offa robbery case of April 2018 and Saraki is expected to be arraigned in court soon. Call it third-world politics if you so wish.

The AbdulRazaqs and the Sarakis have quite a history between them. The late Alhaji AbdulGaniyu Folorunsho AbdulRazaq (“AGF”), the first lawyer from northern Nigeria, was the foremost politician from Ilorin in the First Republic. He was the legal adviser to the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC), the party that controlled federal power. In 1967, AGF was in the committee that recommended the creation of 12 states — of which Kwara was one. He became Commissioner for Finance. But with the politics of the Second Republic, the late Dr. Abubakar Olusola Saraki, a major backer of the ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN), became the new heavyweight from Ilorin. He was the Senate Leader.

Fast-forward to 1999. Dr. Alimi AbdulRazaq, AGF’s eldest son, was the governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), but Saraki fielded Alhaji Mohammed Lawal as the All Peoples Party (APP) candidate and he won. In 2003, AbdulRahman, Alimi’s brother, looked set to be the PDP candidate but Saraki defected to the party and Bukola, the son, got the ticket and went on to unseat Lawal. In 2011, AbdulRahman ran for governorship as the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) flagbearer and lost to Mallam AbdulFatah Ahmed, Bukola’s ally. In 2015, AbdulRahman and Bukola jostled for the Kwara Central senatorial seat, but Bukola won again and became Senate President.

That was the state of play until 2019 when the “Otoge” (“Enough is Enough”) movement displaced the Sarakis from power. Kwarans rejected Mallam Razak Atunwa, Bukola’s candidate, and voted for AbdulRazaq. It was a major political earthquake. Although Mrs. Khairat Gwadabe-AbdulRazaq was a senator from 1999–2003 (and in the FCT, not Ilorin), the Sarakis had won virtually all political battles since 1979. The age-old rivalry finally swung in favour of the AbdulRazaqs as the Otoge revolution also swept Saraki out of the Senate, even as a sitting Senate President. For the first time since 1979, the Sarakis no longer called the shots in Kwara politics. It made national headlines.

In 2023, Saraki tried to stage a comeback by supporting Alhaji Shuaib Yaman Abdullahi from Kwara North as the PDP governorship candidate, but AbdulRazaq was re-elected by a comfortable margin, polling 273,424 votes against Abdullahi’s 155,490. Many believed Saraki was only testing the waters to gauge if his political influence still had some spark. In fairness, his candidate did not do badly, considering he contested against an incumbent. After all, Atunwa got fewer votes in 2019.

Now that the 2027 elections are approaching, serious recalibration is underway in the battle for the soul of Kwara politics between the AbdulRazaqs and the Sarakis.

Here is some background on the political structure of Kwara’s three senatorial districts. Kwara Central, where Ilorin (the capital) is located, controls about 40 percent of the votes and has produced most governors since 1999. Kwara North is home to minority groups such as Nupe, Bariba, Bokobaru, and Fulani. Kwara South consists mainly of Yoruba subgroups like Igbomina, Ibolo, and Ekiti. While AbdulRazaq reportedly favours a candidate from Kwara North, some powerful APC figures support zoning to Kwara South under a “Yoruba agenda.”

This is where the intrigue deepens. If APC zones to the North or South, Saraki may counter by fielding a Kwara Central candidate under PDP, pairing them with a running mate from another zone — a strategic chess move. The APC could instead field another Central candidate to neutralise this, but that risks alienating Kwara South and causing internal rebellion. As it stands, APC appears to have the bigger internal challenge. Saraki, it seems, is already strategising to reverse “Otoge” after eight years.

Saraki has been openly criticising AbdulRazaq’s leadership, especially over insecurity. His aide, Alhaji Yusuph Olaniyonu, issued a statement criticising the governor’s delayed response to attacks in Oke Ode. AbdulRazaq’s spokesman, Mr. Bashir Adigun, responded sharply, accusing Saraki of politicising tragedy.

Meanwhile, the Kwara State Government has filed a 20-count charge against Saraki and former governor AbdulFatah Ahmed over allegations linked to the 2018 Offa bank robbery, which killed 33 people. Saraki has denied the allegations, calling them politically motivated. He maintains that previous investigations found no evidence linking him to the crime.

The case has sparked renewed controversy, especially as it coincides with rising political tension ahead of 2027.

My interest, however, is not in the legal battle. I have bought my popcorn ahead of the anticipated political rematch in 2027 — what may well become a “Thrilla in Kwara.”